Ireland’s public acute hospitals will need to boost inpatient bed capacity by between 40% and 60% by 2040, according to a new report, reports Breaking News.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), in a study published on Wednesday, says growing demand—driven especially by an ageing population—will require significant expansion.
Ireland’s population, which stood at 5.3 million in 2023, is expected to rise to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, depending on migration trends, reports Breaking News.
The proportion of those aged 65 and over will rise from one in seven in 2023 to one in five by 2040.
This older age group already accounts for over 60% of all inpatient bed days and will continue to be a major user of hospital services.
The Department of Health-funded report estimates that emergency department attendances will increase from 1.6 million to more than two million by 2040, reports Breaking News.
Attendances at outpatient departments are projected to climb from 4.6 million in 2023 to between 5.5 and 5.9 million by 2040.
Day patient discharges are forecast to increase from 1.2 million to between 1.5 and 1.6 million, reports Breaking News.
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Meanwhile, inpatient discharges are expected to rise from 650,000 to as many as 900,000.
In terms of overall hospital usage, inpatient bed days are projected to grow from 3.9 million in 2023 to between 5.1 and 6.0 million by 2040.
The ESRI report also estimates that between 650 and 950 additional day patient beds will be required by 2040, representing a rise of 25–37%, reports Breaking News.
For inpatient services, the number of beds needed is projected to rise by 4,400 to 6,800 — an increase of 40–60%.
Even under the lower projections, the study emphasises the urgent need for substantial hospital capacity expansion to meet future demand, reports Breaking News.
It also notes that different policy decisions, such as shorter inpatient stays and better waiting list strategies, could impact the scale of the projected demand.
Dr Aoife Brick, senior research officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report, said: “Our findings highlight significant future growth in demand for public acute hospital services, driven primarily by population growth and ageing. The report offers policymakers evidence on the scale of service expansion needed to meet future demand,” reports Breaking News.
Minister for Health, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill welcomed the review and said: “This evidence base is crucial for future planning, ensuring we have the facilities to provide the best care to patients. Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce requires careful long-term planning,” reports Breaking News.
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