Fine Gael’s presidential bid has hit a wall in the race to the Áras, with Heather Humphreys trailing far behind Independent Catherine Connolly in the latest polls. An Irish Times/Ipsos B&A survey places Connolly at 38% support, nearly double Humphreys’ 20%, while Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin lingers at 5% before his recent withdrawal. With just days until the October 24 vote, this gap signals trouble for Fine Gael’s strategy.
Connolly’s campaign has tapped into voter frustrations on issues like housing and social justice, drawing strong backing from left-leaning and undecided voters. Humphreys, the seasoned Fine Gael minister, has emphasized government stability and economic progress, but her messages on policy debates haven’t resonated as broadly. The undecided bloc—18%—offers a slim lifeline, yet even with Gavin’s transfers splitting evenly, Connolly holds a projected 60% to Humphreys’ 32% among committed voters.
Fine Gael’s heavy ad spend and rural outreach aim to close the divide, but if these efforts falter, the party may have to accept the outcome. Rather than force an unlikely surge, they could redirect focus to post-election rebuilding, effectively throwing in the towel on this contest. Ireland’s presidency demands broad appeal; this race underscores how Connolly’s independent edge has outpaced Fine Gael’s establishment play.
Tell us your thoughts in the Facebook post and share this with your friends.
