The number of long-term residential care beds and home support services for older adults will need to rise by at least 60 percent by 2040, new research indicates, reports Breaking News.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) found that the population aged 85 and over, who heavily rely on long-term residential care and home supports, is expected to more than double in the years ahead.
On Monday, the ESRI published a report on long-term residential care (LTRC), funded by the Department of Health, reports Breaking News.
The study revealed that by 2040, one in five people living in Ireland will be aged over 65.
In 2022, there were approximately 33,324 combined short-stay and long-stay beds available in LTRC facilities, reports Breaking News.
The need for short-stay beds is predicted to rise from 3,745 beds in 2022 to between 6,430 and 7,265 beds by 2040, representing an increase of 72 to 94 percent.
Similarly, long-stay bed demand is expected to grow from 29,579 beds in 2022 to between 47,590 and 53,270 beds by 2040, an increase ranging from 61 to 80 percent, reports Breaking News.
Nearly 29 million home support hours were delivered to older people in 2022, with around three-quarters provided by the HSE’s home support services and the remainder privately purchased.
Projected demand for home support hours is set to increase from 28.7 million hours annually in 2022 to between 44.9 million and 54.9 million hours annually by 2040, a growth of 57 to 91 percent, reports Breaking News.
The ESRI noted that while healthier ageing might reduce future demand somewhat, the significant increase in the older population will largely counterbalance any such effect.
Dr Brendan Walsh, lead author of the report, said: “Ireland has experienced tremendous improvements in life expectancy in recent decades, driven mainly by reductions in mortality at older ages.
“This means there is, and will be, a much larger population at older ages who require long-term care services to support them at home, or within residential facilities. Therefore, plans and policies are needed for long-term care to ensure the health system is in a position to meet the increasing care needs of the older population. Our findings provide policymakers with an important evidence base to help develop these plans and policies,” reports Breaking News.
Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill stated the research will “help us plan better.”
She highlighted that the Programme for Government promises to build more public nursing home beds, establish a homecare scheme to help people remain in their homes longer, and increase home care hours, reports Breaking News.
“We are already making progress in increasing both residential care capacity and home support hours for our older population. This is shown by the €4 million allocated in Budget 2025 to staff and open 615 new community beds. The Department of Health and the HSE are also working on a new Long-Term Residential Care Additional Capacity Plan, to be published in 2025. This capacity review, commissioned by the Department of Health and the HSE, shows our commitment to planning based on evidence. With the Hippocrates Projection Model and our ongoing work with the ESRI, we can adapt our plans to new data and policies as they come up,” reports Breaking News.
Minister of State Kieran O’Donnell, responsible for housing and older people, said the ESRI study will be “invaluable” for planning residential care and home support capacity.
“It is evident that significant action will be required by Government in order to ensure that the appropriate care services are available for our older population and to deliver on Programme for Government, Slaintecare, and Project Ireland 2040 commitments. I am absolutely committed to ensuring that this capacity planning is advanced in 2025,” reports Breaking News.
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