Former minister Ivan Yates has said that Kerry TD Michael Healy-Rae could emerge as a “dark horse” in the race for the Irish presidency, reports Breaking News.
In an interview with BreakingNews.ie, Mr Yates said he was initially surprised by rumours of Mr Healy-Rae entering the contest for Áras an Uachtaráin, but now believes the TD would stand a strong chance.
“One name I’ve picked up with my political antennae, who people believe would win if he ran is, believe it or not, Michael Healy-Rae,” reports Breaking News.
“What people said to me was, if there has to be another candidate other than Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Catherine Connolly, what about Michael Healy-Rae? This is from talking to people from all sorts of background, when I put it to them what do you think of the mad idea that the guy with the cap would run? They immediately said to me, both rural and Dublin, ‘oh if he ran, he’d win’,” reports Breaking News.
“The Healy-Raes are seen as doers, it’s distinctive. Even second generation people in Dublin would see the merit in it, and that he has not only name recognition but a brand as well,” reports Breaking News.
Mr Yates, who previously served as Minister for Agriculture and now co-hosts The Path To Power podcast with Matt Cooper, described Mr Healy-Rae as a potential outsider candidate with momentum.
When asked whether Mr Healy-Rae was seriously considering a campaign, Mr Yates said he had raised the idea with the Minister of State himself — but added that Mr Healy-Rae was unlikely to reveal much.
“I see him as a dark horse. Only this morning I asked him for his view, one thing is certain, he will keep his cards close to his chest. A bit like Michael McDowell, he won’t object to the speculation. It’s always nice in politics to stay in the news, there’s no downside,” reports Breaking News.
“I’m surprised at the high respect he has outside of Kerry, he’s seen as a doer and a successful person in his own right,” reports Breaking News.
“I always say it’s not the same that sells, it’s different that sells. Michael Healy-Rae is different and for him that is a big plus,” reports Breaking News.
Mr Yates added that Fine Gael’s decision to put forward Mairead McGuinness increases the pressure on Fianna Fáil to field their own candidate.
He said the lack of a clear contender was a major problem for the party, and suggested Taoiseach Micheál Martin was their most viable option, reports Breaking News.
He also pointed out that rumours about Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald potentially entering the race could significantly alter the campaign landscape.
“The big factor is now that Fine Gael are running a conventional campaign with Mairead McGuinness, Sinn Féin will have to react to that. I think Sinn Féin have taken the decision to run their own candidate instead of backing a left unity candidate, reports Breaking News.
“The three choices will be Michelle O’Neill, John Finucane and Mary Lou McDonald, the strongest of those is Mary Lou in terms of driving their agenda, their brand, their statement,” reports Breaking News.
“She has had two goes at becoming taoiseach without making much progress, now might be the time rather than going for taoiseach again in 2029, reports Breaking News.
It would suit that strategy if she could get elected to the park. I think it is a gamechanger, if she stands it becomes a completely different election.
“A lot more exciting, in terms of political capital… the stakes will be much higher,” reports Breaking News.
Mr Yates continued: “For what can be a very moribund, personalised, abusive, esoteric contest, this will turn it into a proper national heavyweight title. With a Fine Gael and Sinn Féin player in it, Fianna Fáil cannot sit on their hands, they will need to run a candidate whether they like it or not.
“Party faithful will say the only one who can win it is Micheál Martin, and that he owes it to the party to stand. I don’t see him giving up a job he’s worked so hard for to be taoiseach again, I don’t see him being tempted by the presidency,” reports Breaking News.
“It’s his personal decision and I don’t think he wants it. So what will Fianna Fáil do? They can’t stay out though,” reports Breaking News.
“I originally thought there will be a desire not to give it to Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil and let them have everything, and that is an opportunity for Mary Lou,” reports Breaking News.
“I thought Frances Black had a great chance as a unity candidate, but that would have to have buy-in from Sinn Féin,” reports Breaking News.
With both Mairead McGuinness and Catherine Connolly already declared as candidates, Mr Yates speculated that Fianna Fáil may delay naming their nominee.
He also suggested that the Coalition parties would be highly motivated to prevent Ms McDonald from becoming President, fearing she would use the position to take strong public stances on key issues — rather than simply acting as a ceremonial head of state.
“Mary Lou being in the running changes things as it will make it highly political, and almost tribal. Let the games begin. What we’re looking at now is a much more party political election. Previously it was more of a personality contest with the likes of Joe Duffy and Miriam O’Callaghan linked with bids. It now looks like a more conventional party gun fight. They will all be more invested in it, but unlike a European election it will be very door to door, fought through the media and on debates. I remain to be convinced that the currently declared candidates will provide the winner. There’s a fundamental dichotomy of views about the presidency. One is it’s a representational role, the other is that it’s to change Ireland. This is a constitutional and political row. With someone like Mary Lou it’s limitations would become even more frayed, and maybe attritional, but a lot of people would say that’s a good thing. They’re not in favour of an FF/FG heghemony and that in itself will be an issue upon which the public is very divided. We live in a world of culture wars, so that will be thrown in to everything,” reports Breaking News.
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