The Dublin Central by-election is beginning to look less like a contest and more like a formality, at least according to the latest data coming from prediction markets.
Polymarket, one of the largest decentralised betting platforms, has seen a dramatic shift in odds over the past month. In late February, Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis was trading at roughly a 48% chance of winning the seat. By the end of March, that figure had surged to around 76–77%, making him the clear favourite by a wide margin.
That kind of move is not random. Prediction markets tend to react quickly to real-world signals, and several factors appear to be driving Ennis’s rapid rise.
Recent local polling suggests he has built a strong lead across key working-class areas in Dublin Central. At the same time, his campaign on the ground has been notably active. Reports indicate that more than 23,000 leaflets have already been distributed, alongside well-attended local events and rallies.
Endorsements have also played a role. Support from trade unions has strengthened his position on core voter concerns such as housing and the cost of living, both of which remain dominant issues in the constituency.
Meanwhile, his opponents have struggled to gain momentum.
Janice Boylan of Sinn Féin is currently sitting at around 14% on Polymarket. While still in second place, traders appear cautious, with some pointing to voter fatigue and internal party dynamics as limiting factors.
Independent candidate Gerry Hutch, widely known as “The Monk,” has seen his odds stall at roughly 3–4%. Despite significant media attention, polling suggests a large portion of voters are unwilling to back his candidacy.
Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam has yet to make a meaningful impact on the race, with odds sitting below 1% as the party attempts to hold onto the seat vacated by Paschal Donohoe.
Dublin Central By-Election – Polymarket Odds (March 2026)
- Daniel Ennis (Social Democrats): 76%
- Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin): 14%
- Gerry Hutch (Independent): 4%
- Ray McAdam (Fine Gael): <1%
- Others: <5% combined
Prediction markets like Polymarket are increasingly being used as a real-time barometer of political sentiment, often reacting faster than traditional polling as new information enters the market. They are also becoming more popular among crypto-native users who are already comfortable with decentralised platforms and digital assets.
Although online gambling is legal in Ireland, Polymarket is not currently regulated by Ireland’s Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRAI). Irish punters are using it regardless, with Google searches for the platform up over 900% year-on-year and now ranging between 10,000 and 100,000 monthly queries.
Daniel Ennis Key Positions
As the frontrunner, Ennis has centred his campaign around a number of core issues that resonate strongly with Dublin Central voters:
- Housing Reform: Advocating for increased public housing supply and stronger protections for renters amid rising costs.
- Cost of Living: Supporting targeted measures to ease pressure on working families, including energy and food costs.
- Workers’ Rights: Backing trade union initiatives and policies aimed at improving job security and wages.
- Healthcare Access: Calling for investment in public healthcare services to reduce waiting times and improve accessibility.
With polling, grassroots momentum, and prediction market data all pointing in the same direction, Ennis enters the final stretch of the campaign as the clear candidate to beat.
