New research forecasts that demand for general practitioner (GP) appointments will rise by at least 23 per cent by 2040, reflecting ongoing population expansion, reports Breaking News.
The latest report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) explores multiple scenarios, taking into account factors such as varying rates of population growth, ageing, healthy ageing trends, and policy developments.
Population growth is the primary factor behind the projected increase in demand for GP services, with population ageing playing a secondary role, reports Breaking News.
Ireland’s population is expected to grow from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 million and 6.3 million by 2040, depending on assumptions about future migration patterns.
The share of the population under 25 is anticipated to decline, while the share aged 50 and over is set to grow. While all age groups use GP services, older people tend to require them more frequently, reports Breaking News.
The number of GP consultations is expected to rise from 19.4 million in 2023 to between 23.9 million and 25.2 million by 2040—an increase of 23 to 30 per cent.
This will create a need for between 943 and 1,211 additional GPs by 2040, compared to the 3,928 GPs practicing in 2023.
Nurse consultations in general practice are also forecasted to increase, from 5.7 million in 2023 to between 7.5 million and 7.8 million by 2040—a 32 to 36 per cent rise, reports Breaking News.
As a result, between 761 and 868 more general practice nurses will be needed by 2040, up from a current total of 2,288 GPNs.
The Irish College of GPs welcomed the findings from the ESRI report and acknowledged the rising demand for GP services, reports Breaking News.
Dr Deirdre Collins, chair of the Irish College of GPs board, stated: “We are acutely aware of the impact of the growing population, and the ageing population, on GP services.
“This ESRI report is welcome, because it helps give fresh insights into the challenges facing policy makers and the HSE in meeting the growing demand for GP services,” reports Breaking News.
Fintan Foy, chief executive of the Irish College of GPs, said: “The ESRI report paints a stark picture of the impact of the growing population on GP demand in the coming years.
“With the support of the HSE and the Department of Health, we remain positive that we can continue to address the challenges of GP shortages. We hope that the resources needed to ensure GPs can set up in areas of new population and where GPs are retiring, can be available when needed. We believe the Strategic Review of General Practice needs to be expedited to ensure we can put long term plans in place to meet the growing healthcare needs of the Irish population,” reports Breaking News.
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