The United Kingdom has raised the threat level for an attack from NI to substantial for the first time in five years. The Home Office has said that the “The Security Service, MI5, has increased the threat level to Great Britain from Northern Ireland-related terrorism from moderate to substantial.
This means that a terrorist attack is a strong possibility and reflects the continuing threat from dissident republican activity. The threat level from Northern Ireland-related violence remains at “severe” in Northern Ireland itself, and the threat level from international terrorism on the British mainland also remains “severe”, meaning an attack is “highly likely.”
In July 2011, the threat level from Northern Ireland was downgraded from “substantial”, meaning an attack is a strong possibility, to “moderate”, meaning an attack is possibly but not likely