Scientists have warned that man-made climate change is accelerating natural weather events, causing heatwaves across Asia, Europe and North America that could make 2023 the hottest year since records began, reports RTE.
Experts here explain why 2023 has become so hot, and warn that these record-breaking temperatures will only worsen even if humanity drastically reduces emissions of planet-warming gases.
El Nino and more
After a record hot summer in 2022, the Pacific warming phenomenon known as El Niño returns this year, warming the oceans.
“This may have provided some additional warmth to the North Atlantic, though because the El Nino event is only just beginning, this is likely only a small portion of the effect,” Robert Rohde of US temperature monitoring group Berkeley Earth wrote in an analysis, reports RTE.
The group calculated that there is an 81% chance that 2023 will be the warmest year since thermometer measurements began in the mid-1800s.
Dust and sulfur
Atlantic warming could also be exacerbated by the reduction of two materials that normally reflect sunlight from the ocean: dust blown from the Sahara and sulfur aerosols from transporting fuels.
Mr Rohde’s analysis of North Atlantic temperatures showed “exceptionally low levels of dust coming off the Sahara in recent months”, reports RTE.
This is due to the unusually weak Atlantic winds, said Kirsten Haustein of Germany’s Federal Centre for Climate Services.
Meanwhile, new shipping restrictions in 2020 have reduced toxic sulfur emissions.
“This would not explain all of the present North Atlantic spike, but may have added to its severity,” Mr Rohde noted, reports RTE.
Heat forecast
Berkeley Earth warns that the current El Niño could make Earth even hotter in 2024.
The IPCC says heatwaves could become more frequent and intense, although governments can mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions by country.
“This is just the beginning. Deep, rapid and sustained cuts in carbon emissions to net zero can halt the warming, but humanity will have to adapt to even more severe heatwaves in the future,” said Simon Lewis, chair of global change science at University College London, reports RTE.
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