Ireland is set to fall significantly short of its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030, the Environmental Protection Agency has warned.
Its most recent projections reveal that even if the full range of additional climate measures currently being discussed were implemented in their entirety, it would deliver only half the emissions reduction the country is legally obligated to achieve by 2030, reports RTE.
The EPA said there must be a renewed and concentrated effort to implement policies and measures that will deliver broad-reaching benefits.
These include protecting the environment, supporting public health and wellbeing and reducing Ireland’s reliance on fossil fuels, reports RTE.
Ireland is bound by two separate legally enforceable greenhouse gas targets.
The first, under Ireland’s own Climate Act, requires emissions to fall to 51% below 2018 levels by 2030. The second, under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation, requires a 42% reduction below 2005 levels by the same year, reports RTE.
The EPA report concludes that Ireland is far off course to meet either target.
The Government has committed to a range of additional climate measures — including increased uptake of electric vehicles, greater use of heat pumps, reduced cattle numbers and expanded renewable and imported electricity — but even if all of these are delivered on schedule, the EPA projects a best-case reduction of only 25% under the Climate Act and 23% under the EU framework, reports RTE.
A recent joint report by the Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council suggested that failing to meet the 2030 emissions targets could cost the country between €8 billion and €26 billion in fines and carbon credits.
EPA Director General Dr Eimear Cotter said that while emissions are falling, both European and national targets are projected to be missed, reports RTE.
“There must be a renewed focus on delivering the actions to meet Ireland’s climate targets which will be a significant challenge given the short timeframe to 2030,” she said.
The EPA underlined that hitting emissions targets would yield multiple benefits beyond avoiding financial penalties, including reducing reliance on fossil fuels across electricity, transport and heating, strengthening energy security, improving public health, supporting green employment and protecting the natural environment, reports RTE.
Dr Cotter said the trends in the report show that progress is achievable but stressed that accelerating delivery of committed climate measures is critical.
“Renewable energy is now expected to provide nearly 60% of Ireland’s electricity by 2030. It is imperative given the increasing demand for electricity across several sectors, that renewables are delivered at the pace and scale required to meet this demand,” she added, reports RTE.
Gaps widening and narrowing
The EPA greenhouse gas projections report draws on the latest data from governmental bodies and sector representatives.
It finds that the distance to targets is growing in some areas of the economy while narrowing in others, reports RTE.
Transport, industry and commercial and public buildings are the sectors furthest from meeting their sectoral emission ceilings by 2030.
Agriculture emissions are projected to fall by up to 19%, subject to the level of implementation of measures set out in Government plans, including changes in fertiliser use and reduced livestock numbers, reports RTE.
Transport emissions are projected to fall by up to 28% over the period from 2018 to 2030, if measures including at least 751,000 electric vehicles on the road, higher biofuel blend rates and more sustainable transport options are fully delivered.
In the energy sector, an expanded rollout of renewable electricity generation — expected to supply up to 59% of Ireland’s power by 2030 — alongside greater electricity imports through interconnectors, is contributing to emissions reductions, though the EPA notes that delays to planned offshore wind projects have reduced the scope for further savings before 2030, reports RTE.
EPA Programme Manager Dr Conor Quinlan said the shortfall to the 2030 targets is narrowing in some sectors.
“For example, emissions in the transport sector are now projected to reduce by up to 28% compared with 21% projected last year.
“Encouragingly, projections for electric vehicle uptake have improved, reflecting growing confidence in the transition to cleaner transport,” reports RTE.
By contrast, the gap is widening in the residential sector, where emissions are now projected to fall by only 18%, compared with a 22% decline forecast a year ago — a deterioration linked to a slowdown in home energy upgrades, including heat pump installations.
The EPA said it is critical that ambition and delivery are sustained across all sectors if Ireland is to meet its targets and reap the benefits of decarbonisation for society, reports RTE.
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